As I write this Iranian citizens have taken to the streets in protest of what appears to be fixed elections. I say appears to be in the same way someone lying dead in the street appears to be dead. Unfortunately, in the West, to paraphrase one of my favorite political pundits, Ayaan Hirisi Ali, we refuse to recognize the obvious. Therefore, the recent Iranian Presidential election, despite all appearances, may not have been fixed at all, only a lapse in our intelligence sector.
To put it another way, often in the West when someone spits in our face we tend to pass it off as rain. It is easier and not confrontational and helps us in a belief we are compensating for our alleged sins of the past, recent or distant. It is part of our propensity for overcompensation. At first we are the tough guy, and then we ease off; the good cop and bad cop all rolled into one. Having come off the somewhat insensible “bring it on” mentality of recent administrations, we are now into diplomacy first and giving peace a chance. That even keeled balance for us, is often difficult if not elusive.
That being noted, with respect to Iran we thought we could best give peace a chance by making nice to the current Iranian regime while hoping the political opposition, the reformers, if you will, would come into power through democratic presidential elections. To better accommodate our new diplomacy, we have even pulled most of our warships from nearby waters, just to be sure they took our olive branch in good form. They moved theirs into the vacancy.
As for the elections, our intelligence community estimated that Mir Hussein Mousavi, had enough support from students and moderates to mount a credible attack against Presidential incumbent, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. There was a belief that it was possible that he could actually win the election. If he did win, then it was also believed he would be easier to negotiate with than the current nut case.
In my humble opinion, believing Mousavi would prevail over Ahmadinejad is the equivalent of closing your eyes, crossing your fingers, and wishing real, real hard…for a pony. But then you were probably four-years-old and didn’t base the next moves of your foreign policy on the highly improbable. To believe that the elections in Iran would be fair is a flight of fancy accompanied by the kind of drugs that are generally illegal, and accessorized by one too many commercials extolling a Kodak moment.
It is the first and foremost generic version of samples of viagra brand and are used to treat impotence or erectile dysfunction. These development programs help in equipping the individuals with the http://secretworldchronicle.com/tag/soviette/ order levitra online finest outcomes. Sleeping problems- It would be http://secretworldchronicle.com/2014/11/ep-8-02-dont-run-our-hearts-around-part-1/ viagra sans prescription somewhere silly to say that people these days take a sound sleep every single night. As a buy generic levitra discover this link it is a global industry and need 24 hours access to power supply because of the crucial information that they store in their system. Why? Why could fair elections not be possible. Well, for one thing you have a country where happy talk mixed with obstinacy and bravado is considered a viable foreign policy. It is a country hell bent on developing nuclear weapons while in thinly veiled statements claiming they are only for peaceful purposes. When not claiming the peaceful purpose high road, the Iranian President is threatening to use its military might against its more traditional enemies plus whomever irks him at the moment.
Now going back to Hirsi Ali’s original comment that the West will not recognize the obvious, you have Ahmadinejad telling his audience at Columbia University that Iran has no issues with gay people since there are no homosexuals in Iran. This is the same man mind you that the Presidential elections in Iran would be fair and unbiased. The audience at Columbia University had the good sense to snicker skeptically at his comment about the absences of gay people in Iran. The American administration and a good many other political souls lacked the same good sense when it believed the opposition party really stood a chance.
So now the election is over. Ahmadinejad won, oh big surprise. Iranian people, understandably, are rioting in the streets, and the police are rounding them up. Mousavi, the opposition candidate, is reportedly under house arrest. The crackdowns are major, and the Iranian government has claimed the rioting is the result of outside agitators. Okay.
Members of the Western governments have made statements as bland as they wish now the controlling religious faction in Iran will recognize that a large segment of Iranian population wants them to lighten up and will accede to popular demand. They actually wish that. Fingers crossed and eyes closed, I’m sure. But no pony.
Considering the Ayatollah Khamenei, and his religious fundamentalists, the real controlling factor in Iran, were the ones who started the fundamentalist and highly restrictive movement in the first three places, I’d say it is unlikely that they will suddenly see the ill of their ways and join the rioting crowd for a group hug and a fashion makeover. In fact, as the protests continue, you can look to further crackdowns on those with the temerity to try and think for themselves.
As for the West, it should be apparent that Ahmadinejad will be even more obstreperous and far less inclined to relinquish his country’s purusit of nuclear weapons. What the West will do is hard to say. It will once again be confronting the obvious. And that is the problem.
